According to estimates by leading scientists, the rate of global warming will reach an all-time high in 2023, with 92% of the heat caused by humans.
A team of 57 scientists from around the world used UN-approved methods to investigate what was behind last year’s deadly heat wave. According to their research, even with the fastest heating, dno significant acceleration of climate change has been recorded caused by humans – other than the increased burning of fossil fuels.
Last year’s record temperatures were so unusual that scientists are debating what is behind the big jump and whether climate change is accelerating or other factors are playing a role. Lead study author Piers Forster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds, said: “The temperature data shows that is increasing and the situation is worsening in the way we predict“. He and a co-author of the study said that the fact is more or less explained by the accumulation of carbon dioxide as a result of increased use of fossil fuels.
Last year, the rate of global warming has reached 0.26 degrees per decade — 0.25 degrees Celsius from the previous year. That’s not a significant difference, although it makes this year’s tally the highest ever, Forster said. “The choice to act on climate has become a matter of political debate, but this report should remind people that it is actually a choice to save lives,” he said. study team. “To me, that’s something worth fighting for.”
A group of authors, established every seven to eight years to provide annual scientific updates among the main UN agencies, conducted scientific assessments – I found that last year was 1.43C warmer than the 1850-1900 average Of this, 1.31 percent is caused by human activity. The remaining 8% of warming is mainly due to El Nino, a natural and temporary warming of the central Pacific Ocean that alters global weather, as well as large warming across the Atlantic Ocean and other random weather patterns.
In the longer 10-year period, which scientists prefer to separate years, the world has warmed by about 1.19 degrees Since the pre-industrial era, according to a report in the journal Earth System Science Data. The report also noted that while the world continues to use coal, oil and natural gas, The Earth is expected to reach this point in 4.5 years who can no longer avoid exceeding the internationally accepted limit for fever: Their 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Scientists say that if the temperature exceeds 1.5 degrees, it will not be the end of the world or humanity, but it will be very bad. Previous research by the UN has shown Major changes in Earth’s ecosystem they are more likely to start when the planet warms by 1.5-2 degrees. This possibility includes the possible loss of the planet’s coral reefs, Arctic sea ice, various species of plants and animals – even more extreme weather events that cause loss of human life.
The rise in temperatures last year was more than a small jump. Sonia Seneviratne, head of soil-climate dynamics at ETH Zurich, a Swiss university, said September was particularly unusual. Seneviratne noted that the year was within the forecast range, although at the higher end of the range. “Any acceleration of climate change, if it were to happen, would be even worse, like reaching a global tipping point, which would probably be the worst-case scenario,” Seneviratne said. “But what is happening is already extremely bad and is already making a big impact. We are in the middle of a crisis.”
University of Michigan environment dean Jonathan Overpeck and Berkeley climatologist Zeke Hausfader, neither of whom was involved in the study, said they still see an acceleration. Hausfather pointed out that the rate of warming is significantly higher 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade – that’s between 1970 and 2010.
Reductions in sulfur pollution from shipping – which cooled the atmosphere slightly – were outpaced by particulate carbon emissions last year, the report said. Canadian forest fires. The report also says that an undersea volcano that spews large amounts of heat-trapping water vapor into the atmosphere also spews cooling particles as the two forces cancel each other out. “The future is in our hands,” said Katharine Hayhoe, a Texas Tech climate scientist and senior scientist at The Nature Conservancy. We are – not physics, but humans – who will determine how fast and how much the world will warm“.