Climate change: Temperatures rising ‘faster than ever’, time window closing

Global temperature rise is accelerating at an “unprecedented” rate and the window of time to avoid the worst is narrowing, a major international study warns. climate changeAs Brazil struggles to recover from devastating floods and India and Pakistan swelter in unprecedented heat waves.

Research in the review warns that temperatures are currently rising by 0.26 degrees Celsius per decade, close to the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit set by the international community for the end of the century. Earth System Science DataIt was signed by 56 prominent scientists from 44 organizations.

For comparison, let’s note that the rate of temperature increase in 1970-2010 was only 0.18 degrees per decade.

“While this acceleration is generally consistent with climate models, it is nevertheless a worrying indication that the effects of climate change will worsen more rapidly,” the researchers warn.

Kilona, ​​who works in the fields, tries to cool off with a makeshift fan in New Delhi. The temperature has been close to 50 degrees for the past few days (Reuters).

“Faster than ever”

The aim of the annual survey is to update the climate indicators of the last UN climate report, which was published in 2021 and will be updated in 2027. The data will feed into international climate negotiations and may influence new national climate targets. carbon emissions It is expected to be presented in 2025.

“Global temperatures are still moving in the wrong direction and faster than ever,” said Professor Piers Forster of the University of Leeds, who led the study.

“Our analysis shows that despite climate action slowing the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, the level of human-caused warming has continued to rise over the past year.”

Key findings:

  • Anthropogenic warming is increasing at a rate “unprecedented in the instrumented record,” reaching 0.26 degrees per decade in 2014-23.
  • By the end of 2023, the average temperature was 1.43 degrees above pre-industrial levels. 1.31 percent of this increase is attributable to carbon emissions, and the rest to natural factors such as El Niño.
  • While the anthropogenic temperature increase in 2014-2023 reached 1.19 degrees, in last year’s 2013-2022 decade report, the increase was estimated at 1.14 degrees.
  • Greenhouse gas emissions are the main cause, but reduced sulfur dioxide pollution, which reflects solar radiation back into space, has played a role in accelerating climate change.
  • The amount of carbon dioxide that humanity can emit before reaching the limit of 1.5 degrees has been reduced from 500 billion tons in the UN report in 2020 to only 200 billion tons in early 2024. This amount corresponds to emissions of about four years ago

Despite the worrying findings, Professor Forster saw “little optimism” in the findings. The rate of increase in carbon emissions appears to have slowed since 2000, which means “we won’t necessarily have a large, incremental acceleration of climate change.”

However, his colleague Pierre Friedlingstein pointed out at the press conference that this is not enough.

“It is not enough to have fixed broadcasts. Net emissions should be reduced to zero,” he said. “As long as emissions continue at these levels, warming will continue at these levels.

And unless decisive action is taken, the agreed 1.5 point threshold will be breached and become the “long-term average” within the next decade.

Leave a Comment